Inter-state transmission potential and vulnerability of COVID-19 in India

Prog Disaster Sci. 2020 Oct;7:100114. doi: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100114. Epub 2020 Jun 16.


Since the first case of COVID-19 traced in India on 30th January, 2020, the total no. of confirmed cases is amplified. To assess the inter-state diversity in spreading potentiality of COVID-19, the exposure, readiness and resilience capability have been studied. On the basis of the extracted data, the outbreak scenario, growth rate, testing amenities have been analysed. The study reflects that there is an enormous disparity in growth rate and total COVID-19 cases. The major outbreak clusters associated with major cities of India. COVID-19 cases are very swiftly amplifying with exponential growth in every four to seven days in main affected states during first phase of lockdown. The result shows the vibrant disproportion in the aspects of, hospital bed ratio, coronavirus case-hospital bed ratio, provision of isolation and ventilators, test ratio, distribution of testing laboratories and accessibility of test centres all over India. The study indicates the sharp inequality in transmission potentiality and resilience capacity of different states. Every state and union territory are not well-prepared to contain the spreading of COVID-19. The strict protective measures and uniform resilience system must be implemented in every corner of India to battle against the menace of COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19; Inter-state diversity; Outbreak clusters; Vulnerability.