Stay-at-home orders, social distancing, and trust

Abel Brodeur; Idaliya Grigoryeva; Lamis Kattan

doi:10.1007/s00148-021-00848-z

Stay-at-home orders, social distancing, and trust

J Popul Econ. 2021;34(4):1321-1354. doi: 10.1007/s00148-021-00848-z. Epub 2021 Jun 19.

Authors

Abel Brodeur¹, Idaliya Grigoryeva², Lamis Kattan³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada.
² Development Data Lab, John Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD USA.
³ Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.

Abstract

A clear understanding of community response to government decisions is crucial for policy makers and health officials during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we document the determinants of implementation and compliance with stay-at-home orders in the USA, focusing on trust and social capital. Using cell phone data measuring changes in non-essential trips and average distance traveled, we find that mobility decreases significantly more in high-trust counties than in low-trust counties after the stay-at-home orders are implemented, with larger effects for more stringent orders. We also provide evidence that the estimated effect on post-order compliance is especially large for confidence in the press and governmental institutions, and relatively smaller for confidence in medicine and in science.

Keywords: COVID-19; Social distancing; Stay-at-home orders; Trust.