The Bayesian approach to the evaluation of risk factors in acute and recurrent acute otitis media

Acta Otolaryngol. Jul-Aug 1988;106(1-2):94-101. doi: 10.3109/00016488809107375.


A multivariant modelling method was used to analyse the risk, associated with 22 different factors, of contracting acute otitis media (AOM) in a prospective cohort of 1294 urban children followed up to the age of 17-32 (mean 25) months. By far the most important risk factor was the caring of the child at a day-care centre. The importance of this factor further increased with increasing recurrence of the attacks. Next in order came the existence of sibling(s) with AOM attacks during the follow-up. Prolongation of breastfeeding increased the protection against AOM during the first year of life. The frequency of AOM attacks was lowest around midsummer and highest in early winter.

MeSH terms

  • Acute Disease
  • Breast Feeding
  • Child, Preschool
  • Day Care, Medical
  • Housing
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Otitis Media / etiology*
  • Recurrence
  • Risk Factors
  • Smoking