Linking population dynamics to microbial kinetics for hybrid modeling of bioelectrochemical systems

Abstract

Mechanistic and data-driven models have been developed to provide predictive insights into the design and optimization of engineered bioprocesses. These two modeling strategies can be combined to form hybrid models to address the issues of parameter identifiability and prediction interpretability. Herein, we developed a novel and robust hybrid modeling strategy by incorporating microbial population dynamics into model construction. The hybrid model was constructed using bioelectrochemical systems (BES) as a platform system. We collected 77 samples from 13 publications, in which the BES were operated under diverse conditions, and performed holistic processing of the 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing data. Community analysis revealed core populations composed of putative electroactive taxa Geobacter, Desulfovibrio, Pseudomonas, and Acinetobacter. Primary Bayesian networks were trained with the core populations and environmental parameters, and directed Bayesian networks were trained by defining the operating parameters to improve the prediction interpretability. Both networks were validated with Bray-Curtis similarly, relative root-mean-square error (RMSE), and a null model. A hybrid model was developed by first building a three-population mechanistic component and subsequently feeding the estimated microbial kinetic parameters into network training. The hybrid model generated a simulated community that shared a Bray-Curtis similarity of 72% with the actual microbial community at the genus level and an average relative RMSE of 7% for individual taxa. When examined with additional samples that were not included in network training, the hybrid model achieved accurate prediction of current production with a relative error-based RMSE of 0.8 and outperformed the data-driven models. The genomics-enabled hybrid modeling strategy represents a significant step toward robust simulation of a variety of engineered bioprocesses.

Keywords: Bayesian network; Engineered bioprocess; Hybrid modeling; Machine learning; Microbial kinetics; Microbial population dynamics.