ABC 2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: development, external validation and comparison with other available scores

Int J Infect Dis. 2021 Sep;110:281-308. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.07.049. Epub 2021 Jul 24.

Abstract

Objectives: The majority of available scores to assess mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in the emergency department have high risk of bias. Therefore, this cohort aimed to develop and validate a score at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare this score with other existing ones.

Methods: Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for in-hospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients admitted between March-July, 2020. The model was validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August-September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients.

Results: Median (25-75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48-72) years, and in-hospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mortality. Seven significant variables were included in the risk score: age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count, and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829-0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859 [95% CI 0.833-0.885]) and Spanish (0.894 [95% CI 0.870-0.919]) validation cohorts, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. It is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://abc2sph.com/).

Conclusions: An easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients commonly available at hospital presentation was designed and validated for early stratification of in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19; Hospitalizations; Mortality; Prognosis; Risk factors; SARS-CoV-2; Score.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • COVID-19*
  • Hospital Mortality
  • Hospitalization
  • Humans
  • Middle Aged
  • Prognosis
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • SARS-CoV-2