In a recent commentary, Allamani asked how one can establish causality in epidemiological research, and specifically about causality as it relates to alcohol control policy. Epidemiology customarily uses a sufficient-component cause model, where a sufficient cause for an outcome is determined by a set of minimal conditions and events that inevitably produce the stated outcome. While this model is theoretically clear, its operationalisation often involves probabilistic elements. Recent advances in agent-based modelling may improve operationalisation. The implications for alcohol control policy from this model are straightforward: the so-called alcohol-attributable fraction denotes the cases of morbidity or mortality which would not have happened in the absence of alcohol use.
Keywords: alcohol; alcohol control policy; causality; probabilistic.
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