Rising nonmarital first childbearing among college-educated women: Evidence from three national studies

Abstract

Levels of nonmarital first childbearing are assessed using recent administrations of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 Cohort; the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health; and the National Survey of Family Growth. Results confirm that the higher a woman's educational attainment, the less likely she is to be unmarried at the time of her first birth. A comparison over time shows increases in nonmarital first childbearing at every educational level, with the largest percentage increase occurring among women with college degrees at the BA or BS level or higher. This article projects that 18 to 27% of college-educated women now in their thirties who have a first birth will be unmarried at the time. In addition, among all women who are unmarried at first birth, women with college degrees are more likely to be married at the time of their second birth, and, in a majority of cases, the other parent of the two children was the same person. A growing proportion of well-educated women, and their partners, may therefore be pursuing a family formation strategy that proceeds directly to a first birth, and then proceeds, at a later point, to marriage, followed by a second birth. Possible reasons for the increase in nonmarital first births among the college-educated include the stagnation of the college wage premium; the rise in student debt; decreasing selectivity; and the growing acceptability of childbearing within cohabiting unions, which have become a common setting for nonmarital childbearing, and among single parents.

Keywords: cohabitation; education; fertility; marriage.

Fig. 1.

Percentage of women unmarried at the time of first birth in three national studies conducted in overlapping fieldwork periods, by highest educational degree attained. The subjects and studies are 1) women aged 32 y to 38 y in the NLSY97, interviewed in 2017–2018; 2) women aged 34 y to 40 y in Wave 5 of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, interviewed in 2016–2018; and 3) women aged 32 y to 38 y in the NSFG, interviewed in 2015–2017. (The NSFG did not collect information on the general equivalency diploma.) The three studies yield comparable estimates. SEs are shown.

Fig. 2.

Percentage of women who were unmarried at the time of first birth, for women aged 32 y to 38 y, 1996 and 2017–2018, by highest degree attained. The figure shows the percentage of women in the age range of 32 y to 38 y who were unmarried at the time of their first birth, by the highest educational degree they had attained at that time, at two time points. The 1996 information is taken from interviews with the respondents in the NLSY79. The 2017–2018 information is taken from interviews with the respondents in a later study, the NLSY97. The figure shows large increases in all educational categories. In 1996, only 4% of women with a bachelor’s degree or a higher degree, such as an MA, PhD, or MD, were unmarried at first birth. The 2017–2018 percentage is 24.5%, a sixfold increase. SEs are shown.

Fig. 3.

Percentage married at the time of second birth for women who were unmarried at the time of first birth, by highest educational degree attained. The figure is limited to women in each of the three studies who had been unmarried at the time of their first birth and later had a second birth. It shows that, in all three studies, the percentage who were married at the time of the second birth was higher for women with a bachelor’s degree or advanced degrees than for women with lesser attainment than a bachelor’s degree. SEs are shown.