The application of machine learning algorithms in predicting the length of stay following femoral neck fracture

Abstract

Purpose: Femoral neck fracture is a frequent cause of hospitalization, and length of stay is an important marker of hospital cost and quality of care provided. As an extension of traditional statistical methods, machine learning provides the possibility of accurately predicting the length of hospital stay. The aim of this paper is to retrospectively identify predictive factors of the length of hospital stay (LOS) and predict the postoperative LOS by using machine learning algorithms.

Method: Based on the admission and perioperative data of the patients, linear regression was used to analyze the predictive factors of the LOS. Multiple machine learning models were developed, and the performance of different models was compared.

Result: Stepwise linear regression showed that preoperative calcium level (P = 0.017) and preoperative lymphocyte percentage (P = 0.007), in addition to intraoperative bleeding (p = 0.041), glucose and sodium chloride infusion after surgery (P = 0.019), Charlson Comorbidity Index (p = 0.007) and BMI (P = 0.031), were significant predictors of LOS. The best performing model was the principal component regression (PCR) with an optimal MAE (1.525) and a proportion of prediction error within 3 days of 90.91%.

Conclusion: Excessive intravenous glucose and sodium chloride infusion after surgery, preoperative hypocalcemia, preoperative high percentages of lymphocytes, excessive intraoperative bleeding, lower BMI and higher CCI scores were related to prolonged LOS by using linear regression. Machine learning could accurately predict the postoperative LOS. This information allows hospital administrators to plan reasonable resource allocation to fulfill demand, leading to direct care quality improvement and more reasonable use of scarce resources.

Keywords: Femoral neck fracture; Intravenous fluid management; Length of stay; Machine learning.