A system dynamics model to simulate the water-energy-food nexus of resource-based regions: A case study in Daqing City, China

Abstract

Resource-based regions (RBRs) have made significant contributions to the social and economic development of nations. The long-term and high-intensity development of resources puts tremendous pressure on water, energy and food resources and the ecological environment. Exploring the water-energy-food nexus (WEF nexus, WEFN) of RBRs is key to making informed decisions about regional sustainable development. In this study, a feedback model for the WEFN of RBRs was developed using a system dynamics approach. The WEFN model not only describes the WEFN system from both the supply and demand sides, but also classifies WEF resources. Using Daqing, China, as a case study, five future scenarios were designed to explore the impacts of real policies designed by different government departments on the WEFN system. Comparing the predicted results of a scheme for business as usual, a scheme for developing bioenergy, a scheme for adjustment of the production structure, a scheme for strengthening the development of water and food resources and a scheme for saving WEF resources revealed that the schemes for adjustment of the production structure and for saving WEF resources will not only improve the security of WEF resources, but also reduce pollution of the water environment by human activities, which is conducive to improving the overall benefits of the WEFN system. Finally, some practical suggestions are put forward to promote the coordinated development of the WEFN system. The WEFN model is a multi-centric tool for integrated resources management, and can be expanded to other RBRs and provides scientific support for decision-makers.

Keywords: Daqing; Resource-based region; Scenario analysis; System dynamics; Water-energy-food nexus.