Temporal Association Between Episodes of Atrial Fibrillation and Risk of Ischemic Stroke

Abstract

Importance: Understanding the temporal association between atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischemic stroke informs our understanding of the AF-stroke mechanism and treatment of paroxysmal AF.

Objective: To define the temporal association between episodes of AF and stroke in patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs).

Design, setting, and participants: In this case-crossover study, data from a large national electronic health record database were linked with a single-vendor database of heart rhythm records of patients with CIEDs capable of continuous heart rhythm monitoring. Patients with CIEDs who sustained an ischemic stroke who also had 120 days of continuous remote rhythm monitoring prestroke were included. Data were collected from January 2007 to March 2017, and data were analyzed from November 2019 to June 2020.

Exposure: AF for 5.5 hours or more on any given day during days 1 to 30 vs days 91 to 120 prestroke.

Main outcomes and measures: Odds ratio for stroke comparing AF during days 1 to 30 vs 91 to 120 prestroke. This analysis was planned prior to the study.

Results: From 466 635 patients included in both the Optum electronic health record and CareLink databases, 891 patients with CIEDs and ischemic stroke with continuous monitoring in the 120 days prestroke were identified. Of 891 included patients, 575 (64.5%) were male, and the median (interquartile range) age was 76 (67-82) years. The vast majority of patients with stroke had either no AF meeting the threshold duration of 5.5 hours or more in both the case and control periods (682 of 891 [76.5%]) or AF of 5.5 hours or more in both periods (143 of 891 [16.0%]). For those not meeting the 5.5-hour AF threshold in either period, there was no or very little AF throughout the 120 days prestroke. A total of 66 patients had informative, discordant arrhythmic states, with 52 having AF of 5.5 hours or more in the case period vs 14 in the control period (odds ratio [OR], 3.71; 95% CI, 2.06-6.70). Stroke risk was increased most in days 1 to 5 following an AF episode (OR, 5.00; 95% CI, 2.62-9.55). AF greater than 23 hours on a given day was associated with the clearest increase in stroke risk (OR, 5.00; 95% CI, 2.08-12.01).

Conclusions and relevance: In this large cohort of patients with CIEDs and continuous rhythm monitoring prior to ischemic stroke, excess stroke risk above baseline was highest within 5 days of an episode of AF of 5.5 hours or more in duration and diminished rapidly thereafter. Our findings are consistent with the traditional view that AF is directly and transiently associated with ischemic stroke. These results provide support for trials of time-delimited anticoagulation for patients with infrequent multihour episodes of AF and rigorous, continuous rhythm monitoring.

Figure.. Odds Ratios for Ischemic Stroke for Sequential, Nonoverlapping 5-Day Intervals Containing at Least 1 Day With 5.5 Hours or More of Atrial Fibrillation

Five-day intervals proximate to the stroke were the case periods and were compared with corresponding matched within-patient 5-day control periods beginning 90 days earlier (days 1 to 5 prestroke were compared with days 91 to 95, days 6 to 10 were compared with days 96-100, and so on). Error bars indicate 95% CIs. The horizontal dotted line is the odds ratio of 1.0, ie, reflecting no association. Detailed results are provided in eTable 2 in the Supplement.