Conducting mass gathering events during the COVID-19 pandemic: a case study of Kumbh Mela 2021 as a potential 'super spreader event'

Abstract

Background: With the emergence of novel pathogens, there is a worldwide debate on the cancellation or conduction of mass gathering events.

Methods: In the current coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic situation, this study assesses the challenges in the conduction of the recently held Kumbh Mela mass gathering (MG), which took place from 14th January 2021 to 29th April 2021 at Haridwar, the capital city of the state of Uttarakhand, India. The correlation between increased cases of COVID-19 and the Kumbh Mela MG has been highlighted through statistical analysis and growth curves using the available data.

Results: The Kumbh Mela-2021 emerged as a potential super spreader event with an increase of 37 cases per day to 144 cases per day (276%) in the COVID-19 cases in Haridwar. An increase from 138 to 480 cases per day (236%) and from 45 600 to 92 754 cases per day (92%) was noted in Uttarakhand and India respectively during this MG. A very strong correlation of 'more than 0.99' was seen between the number of cumulative cases of COVID-19 in Uttarakhand and Haridwar, and Haridwar and India during the Kumbh Mela in the third wave of the pandemic.

Conclusions: The direct influence of Kumbh Mela on the increase in the overall number of COVID-19 cases is observed. Although, the socio-cultural, psychological and economical advantages of MGs are considerable in a developing nation like India, but organization of such events can be a huge health hazard. The lack of efficient implementation and observance of COVID-19 guidelines elevates the necessity of cancellation of such MGs to prevent the outbreak of diseases. Thus, a well-conducted risk assessment prior to the hosting of a MG event during a pandemic is required with strict application of precautionary measures towards prevention of super-spreader events.

Keywords: Epidemiology; India; Prevention; Risk Assessment; Transmission; World Health Organization (WHO).