Time Trends and Predictions of Suicide Mortality for People Aged 70 Years and Over From 1990 to 2030 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Jun He; Feiyun Ouyang; Dan Qiu; Ling Li; Yilu Li; Shuiyuan Xiao

doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2021.721343

Time Trends and Predictions of Suicide Mortality for People Aged 70 Years and Over From 1990 to 2030 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Front Psychiatry. 2021 Sep 27:12:721343. doi: 10.3389/fpsyt.2021.721343. eCollection 2021.

Authors

Jun He^{1

2}, Feiyun Ouyang^{1

2}, Dan Qiu^{1

2}, Ling Li^{1

2}, Yilu Li^{1

2}, Shuiyuan Xiao^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, China.
² Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Changsha, China.

Abstract

Background: High suicide rate in the elderly is an important global public health problem but has not received the attention it deserves. This study aimed to examine time trends of suicide mortality for people aged 70 years and over by sex, age, and location from 1990 to 2017, and to provide predictions up to 2030. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017, we presented elderly suicide mortality changes and compared the patterns for the elderly with that for all ages. We estimated associations between socio-demographic index (SDI) and suicide mortality rates using a restricted cubic spline smoother, and predicted suicide mortality rates up to 2030. Results: In 2017, 118,813 people aged 70 years and over died from suicide, indicating a mortality rate of 27.5 per 100,000, with the highest rates in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, Western Sub-Saharan Africa, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and for countries and territories, the highest were in South Korea, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Mozambique, and Senegal. Between 1990 and 2017, suicide mortality rate for the elderly aged 70 years and over decreased globally (percentage change -29.1%), and the largest decreases occurred in East Asia, Southern Latin America, and Western Europe. Nationally, the largest decrease was found in Chile, followed by Czech Republic, Hungary, Turkey, and Philippines. For most countries, the elderly mortality rate was higher than the age-standardized rate, with the largest percentage differences in China and countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The elderly suicide mortality rate decreased as SDI increased, except for a slight rebound at mid to high SDI. According to projections, 10 out of 195 countries were expected to meet the SDGs indicator of a third reduction by 2030. Conclusions: Variability in suicide mortality rates for the elderly aged 70 years and over by sex, age, region, country, and SDI can guide preventive policies, but causes of the variability need further study. Comprehensive strategies should be adopted to reduce suicide rates and close the gap to the 2030 SDGs.

Keywords: global burden of disease study; mortality; prediction; socio-demographic index; suicide; the elderly.