Purpose: The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an accessible marker from a routine blood test. This study explored the prognostic and predictive value of a change in NLR (c-NLR) after chemotherapy, baseline NLR (bNLR) and chemotherapy response, in metastatic gastric cancer (mGC) patients.
Methods: A total of 116 mGC patients treated between 2009 to 2019 at seven hospitals from Galician Research Group on Digestive Tumors (GITuD) were reviewed in a multicentre, ambispective and observational study. NLR was calculated and the optimal cut-off was defined as NLR=3.96 based on ROC method. NLR was determined at baseline and after two chemotherapy cycles in first line treatment. Change NLR was calculated as NLR after two chemotherapy cycles minus bNLR. The relation of bNLR and c-NLR to overall survival (OS) was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier method and compared by log-rank test. Dynamic Score (DScore) based on c-NLR and baseline NLR were correlated with OS and radiological response. Univariate, multivariate and chi-square analyses were performed.
Results: Median patient age was 68.7 years, and 66% were male. Univariate analysis showed OS correlation for bNLR ≥3.96 (5.97 vs 10.87 months, p=0.001), c-NLR increase (6.63 vs 10.34 months, p=0.021) and DScore (12.74 vs 7.68 vs 2.43 months, p<0.001). High DScore was associated with radiological progression after two cycles (x2=10.26, p=0.006). Multivariate analysis: bNLR ≥3.96 (HR=2.16, p=0.003) and c-NLR increase (HR= 2.36, p=0.003) were prognostic factors of poor OS.
Conclusion: High bNLR and increased NLR after chemotherapy were associated with worse outcome. Dynamic measurement of NLR provides information for stratifying patients to guide optimal treatment.