Association of abdominal aortic aneurysm diameter indexed to patient height with symptomatic presentation and mortality

Abstract

Background: The current guidelines have recommended repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) according to the maximal AAA diameter and/or its growth rate. However, many studies have suggested that the AAA diameter alone is not sufficient to predict the risk of rupture or symptomatic presentation. Several investigators have attempted to relate the AAA diameter to the body surface area in predicting for rupture. However, these calculations have not resulted in conclusive evidence. We sought in the present analysis to introduce a novel diameter-to-height index (DHI) and test its utility in predicting for symptomatic presentations, including rupture and 30-day and 5-year mortality.

Methods: The Vascular Quality Initiative database (2003-2020) was used to identify patients who had undergone open or endovascular AAA repair. The DHI was defined as the AAA diameter in centimeters divided by the height in centimeters, yielding a score of 1 to 10. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the risk of symptomatic presentation, including rupture and 30-day mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted, and survival analysis techniques were used to determine the hazard of 5-year mortality.

Results: A total of 64,595 patients were identified, of whom, 16.3% had presented with symptomatic AAAs, including rupture. Endovascular AAA repair was performed for 69.8% of the symptomatic AAAs and 84.3% of asymptomatic AAAs (P < .001). The symptomatic group were more likely to be women (24.6% vs 19.8%; P < .001) and Black (7.81% vs 4.44%; P < .001). The mean DHI was higher in the symptomatic group than in the asymptomatic group (mean DHI, 3.92 ± 1.1 vs 3.24 ± 0.7; P < .001). The adjusted odds of a symptomatic presentation increased with an increasing DHI (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.59-1.83; P < .001). Active smoking increased the risk of a symptomatic presentation (aOR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.28-1.51; P < .001). However, the use of preoperative statins and beta-blockers significantly reduced the odds of a symptomatic presentation (aOR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.53-0.64; P < .001; and aOR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.69-0.84; P < .001), respectively. Compared with the AAA diameter, the receiver operating characteristic curve for the DHI to predict for symptomatic status was slightly, but significantly, higher (aOR, 0.702; 95% CI, 0.695-0.708; vs aOR, 0.695; 95% CI, 0.688-0.701; P < .001). The DHI increment was associated with a 1.08 greater odds of 30-day mortality (aOR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01-1.15; P < .001) for those with symptomatic AAAs. Similarly, the hazard of 5-year mortality was increased with an increasing DHI (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.13-1.29; P < .001) only for those with asymptomatic AAAs.

Conclusions: The DHI is a simple tool that could be more effective than the AAA diameter in predicting for symptomatic presentations. The DHI varied by sex and race, which could collectively help to provide an individualized prognosis. The DHI can additionally predict the 5-year mortality after AAA repair for those with asymptomatic AAAs only. However, the odds of 30-day mortality remained similar in both groups.

Keywords: Abdominal aortic aneurysm; Diameter-height index; Growth rate; Rupture.