A system dynamics approach to pollution remediation and mitigation based on increasing the share of renewable resources

Environ Res. 2022 Apr 1;205:112458. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112458. Epub 2021 Dec 2.

Abstract

This study explores the role of renewable energy (RE) penetration in Malaysia's energy security (ES) and its implications for the country's target of 20% capacity in the energy mix by 2025. Renewable energy (RE) is a critical driver of long-term energy security. In 2018, the share of renewable energy in Malaysia's energy mix was 9%, falling far short of the national target of 20% penetration by 2025. This study employs a system dynamics approach to investigate the relationship between RE penetration and correlated indicators from energy security (ES) dimensions: energy availability, environmental sustainability, and socio-economics. The causal relationships between the three-dimensional indicators of ES have been established using causal and stock and flow logic. Simulated results show that energy consumption has increased sharply, while energy efficiency and economic growth have only increased by a small margin with an increase in RE from 2015 to 2020. The energy intensity is expected to rise slightly by the end of the fifth year. As a result, the overall impact is positive for Malaysia's environmental sustainability while reducing its reliance on energy imports and meeting national economic growth demands.

Keywords: Economic health; Efficiency; Energy intensity; Energy security; Renewable energy; System dynamics.

MeSH terms

  • Carbon Dioxide* / analysis
  • Economic Development
  • Environmental Restoration and Remediation*
  • Renewable Energy

Substances

  • Carbon Dioxide