No Meta-analytic Effect of Age on Probability of Developing Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk

Abstract

Objective: The clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) holds the potential to improve outcomes through primary indicated prevention. Its impact is determined by efficient detection, prognostication and prophylactic interventions. Specifically, ascertaining the likelihood of psychosis onset from a CHR-P state is of paramount relevance to inform clinical care. The objective of this paper is to provide a critical analysis of the impact of age on the likelihood of developing psychosis in CHR-P individuals.

Method: Critical analysis of recent publications in the light of evidence-based meta-analyses.

Results: Recent meta-analyses showed that the probability of developing psychosis from a CHR-P, which cumulates to 19% (95% CI 17% to 22%) at 2 years, increasing to 28% (95% CI 20% to 37%) at >4 years. Some studies suggest that lower age of CHR-P individuals is associated with a reduced transition to psychosis, but these studies are biased by the use of an arbitrary cut-off at the age of 18 years, which conflicts with the neurodevelopmental biology and the transitional (ie, including both adolescents and young adults) nature of the CHR-P paradigm. When age is tested as a continuous predictor in meta-regression analyses, there is no evidence that it is associated with the probability of developing psychosis (β = 0.0165, 95% CI -0.0362 to 0.0692).

Conclusions: There is no evidence that age impacts the probability of developing psychosis in individuals at CHR-P. Adolescents at CHR-P remain a vulnerable patient group that needs ongoing collaborative research and preventive efforts.