Trajectory Curves for Purposes of Benchmarking and Predicting Clinical Outcomes: A Scoping Review

Abstract

Trajectory curves are valuable tools to benchmark patient health status and predict future outcomes. A longitudinal study is underway to examine social participation after burn injury using the Life Impact Burn Recovery Evaluation (LIBRE) Profile with the goal of developing trajectory curves for specific domains that focus on social reintegration. We conducted a scoping review to inform and understand trajectory curves applied in clinical settings to compare outcomes for an individual to a matched cohort of comparable patients or predicted expected outcomes over time. This scoping review utilized a PubMed search from January 2014 to August 2019 for the following terms: "trajectory curves" or "trajectory models" and "clinic" or "clinical." Only articles that specifically referenced longitudinal and clinical research designs were included in the scoping review. Articles were assessed using standard scoping review methods and categorized based on clinical application of trajectory curves for either benchmarking or prediction. The initial literature review identified 141 manuscripts and 34 met initial inclusion criteria. The reviewed articles support the clinical use of trajectory curves. Findings provide insight into several key determinants involved with the successful development and implementation of trajectory curves in clinical settings. These findings will inform efforts to use the LIBRE Profile to model social participation recovery and assist in developing effective strategies using trajectory curves to promote social reintegration after burn injury.