The purpose of this paper is to develop and validate a delta-radiomics score to predict the response of individual colorectal cancer liver metastases (lmCRC) to first-line FOLFOX chemotherapy. Three hundred one lmCRC were manually segmented on both CT performed at baseline and after the first cycle of first-line FOLFOX, and 107 radiomics features were computed by subtracting textural features of CT at baseline from those at timepoint 1 (TP1). LmCRC were classified as nonresponders (R-) if they showed progression of disease (PD), according to RECIST1.1, before 8 months, and as responders (R+), otherwise. After feature selection, we developed a decision tree statistical model trained using all lmCRC coming from one hospital. The final output was a delta-radiomics signature subsequently validated on an external dataset. Sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV), and negative (NPV) predictive values in correctly classifying individual lesions were assessed on both datasets. Per-lesion sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 99%, 94%, 95%, 99%, 85%, 92%, 90%, and 87%, respectively, in the training and validation datasets. The delta-radiomics signature was able to reliably predict R- lmCRC, which were wrongly classified by lesion RECIST as R+ at TP1, (93%, averaging training and validation set, versus 67% of RECIST). The delta-radiomics signature developed in this study can reliably predict the response of individual lmCRC to oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy. Lesions forecasted as poor or nonresponders by the signature could be further investigated, potentially paving the way to lesion-specific therapies.
Keywords: CRC liver metastases; artificial intelligence; delta-radiomics; machine learning; prediction; response to therapy.