Model-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19

Nat Commun. 2022 Jan 14;13(1):322. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-27939-5.


There are contrasting results concerning the effect of reactive school closure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To shed light on this controversy, we developed a data-driven computational model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We found that by reactively closing classes based on syndromic surveillance, SARS-CoV-2 infections are reduced by no more than 17.3% (95%CI: 8.0-26.8%), due to the low probability of timely identification of infections in the young population. We thus investigated an alternative triggering mechanism based on repeated screening of students using antigen tests. Depending on the contribution of schools to transmission, this strategy can greatly reduce COVID-19 burden even when school contribution to transmission and immunity in the population is low. Moving forward, the adoption of antigen-based screenings in schools could be instrumental to limit COVID-19 burden while vaccines continue to be rolled out.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 / diagnosis
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / prevention & control*
  • COVID-19 / transmission
  • COVID-19 Serological Testing
  • Computer Simulation
  • Humans
  • Italy / epidemiology
  • Mass Screening / trends
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Physical Distancing
  • Quarantine / organization & administration*
  • SARS-CoV-2 / growth & development
  • SARS-CoV-2 / immunology
  • SARS-CoV-2 / pathogenicity*
  • Schools / legislation & jurisprudence
  • Schools / organization & administration*
  • Students / legislation & jurisprudence