A Stochastic SEIRS Epidemic Model with Infection Forces and Intervention Strategies

Abstract

The spread of epidemics has been extensively investigated using susceptible-exposed infectious-recovered-susceptible (SEIRS) models. In this work, we propose a SEIRS pandemic model with infection forces and intervention strategies. The proposed model is characterized by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) framework with arbitrary parameter settings. Based on a Markov semigroup hypothesis, we demonstrate the effect of the proliferation number R ₀ ^S on the SDE solution. On the one hand, when R ₀ ^S < 1, the SDE has an illness-free solution set under gentle additional conditions. This implies that the epidemic can be eliminated with a likelihood of 1. On the other hand, when R ₀ ^S > 1, the SDE has an endemic stationary circulation under mild additional conditions. This prompts the stochastic regeneration of the epidemic. Also, we show that arbitrary fluctuations can reduce the infection outbreak. Hence, valuable procedures can be created to manage and control epidemics.