Seasonal Variation and Risk of Febrile Seizures: A Danish Nationwide Cohort Study

Abstract

Introduction: Onset of febrile seizures varies with calendar season. However, it has not previously been assessed, how season of birth interacts with age and peak risk of febrile seizures, and whether season of birth correlates with the cumulative risk of febrile seizures at 5 years of age (i.e., when children are no longer of risk of febrile seizures).

Methods: We identified all singleton children born in Denmark between 1977 and 2011 who were alive at 3 months of age (N = 2,103,232). We used the Danish Civil Registration System to identify age and sex of the children and the Danish National Patient Register to identify children hospitalized with febrile seizures from 3 months to 5 years of age. Follow-up ended on December 31, 2016, when all children had reached 5 years of age.

Results: The relative risk of admission with a first febrile seizure varied with calendar month; in February (a winter month in Denmark), the risk was more than doubled (hazard ratio: 2.10 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.03-2.18]) compared with August (a summer month in Denmark). The age-specific incidence of a first febrile seizure by birth month identified the highest peak incidence of a first febrile seizure among children born in November (reaching a peak incidence of 350 first admissions with a febrile seizure per 100,000 person months at age 16 months) as compared to children born in July (reaching a peak incidence of 200 first admissions with a febrile seizure per 100,000 person months at age 16 months). However, the cumulative incidence of any admission with febrile seizures before 5 years was not correlated with season of birth (3.69% [95% CI: 3.64-3.74%] for winter births, 3.57% [95% CI: 3.52-3.62%] for spring births, 3.55% [95% CI: 3.50-3.59%] for summer births, and 3.64% [95% CI: 3.59-3.69%] for fall births).

Discussion/conclusion: The study found a significant seasonal variation in onset of the first febrile seizure and in the age-specific peak incidence of febrile seizures. However, there was no correlation between season of birth and cumulative incidence of febrile seizures at 5 years of age suggesting that children who are predisposed to febrile seizures will eventually go on to experience a febrile seizure regardless of season of birth.

Keywords: Febrile convulsions; Febrile seizures; Seasonal variation.