[Establishment and validation of prediction model of new-onset pelvic organ prolapse in early postpartum period]

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the risk factors of pelvic organ prolapse (POP) and to establish the prediction model. Methods: A study was conducted on the prevalence of POP among 2 247 parturient women at 6 weeks postpartum in Peking University People's Hospital from December 2018 to October 2019, and relevant influencing factors were analyzed to construct a prediction model of early postpartum POP using logsitic regression, which was validated internally. Data from November 2019 to December 2019 (403 parturient women) were collected for external validation of the prediction model. In addition, the obstetrical factors affecting the occurrence of early postpartum POP in 885 primiparas with vaginal delivery (from January 2019 to November 2019) were further discussed. Results: A total of 2 247 cases were included in the modeling group, and 403 cases were included in the external validation data set. POP accounted for 24.3% (545/2 247). Age, parity, body mass index before pregnancy, vaginal delivery and newborn birth weight were negative factors for early postpartum POP (all P<0.05). The nomogram was established based on the above factors, and internal and external verification indicated that the model had a good discrimination (C-index were 0.759 and 0.760, respectively). In addition, this study found that age and newborn birth weight were the main causes of early postpartum POP in primiparas with vaginal delivery (P=0.044, P=0.004). Conclusions: The incidence of early postpartum POP is high. The prediction model of POP constructed in this study could be used to guide clinical practice to a certain extent and give corresponding treatment suggestions to pregnant women scientifically, so as to provide theoretical support for primary prevention.