Purpose: Gene expression tests can inform decisions on whether to recommend chemotherapy for patients with HR+, HER2- early breast cancer. The goal of this analysis was to compare treatment costs by an expanded budget impact model of reimbursed gene expression tests in Germany.
Methods: A cost comparison was constructed as an expanded budget impact model to calculate average total costs per patient covered by public health insurance. Based on the strong clinical evidence from the prospective randomized controlled trial TAILORx including more than 10,000 patients with HR+ and node negative breast cancer, the assumption was made that the Oncotype DX® test accurately predicts chemotherapy benefit and clinical outcomes. For the further reimbursed tests (EndoPredict®, MammaPrint®, Prosigna®), results from comparative studies - aligned with prognosis studies - as analyzed in IQWiG Rapid Report D19-01 were applied.
Results: The use of the Oncotype DX test led to estimated average savings per patient of 2,500 € vs. EndoPredict, 1,936 € vs. MammaPrint, and 649 € vs. Prosigna. Savings were achieved by reduction of unnecessary chemotherapy use, a consequence of false-positive test results (EndoPredict 73%, MammaPrint 42%, Prosigna 20%). False-negative test results (EndoPredict 5%, MammaPrint 22%, Prosigna 49%) reduced necessary chemotherapies, which initially results in cost savings, but may lead to increased long-term costs associated with management of progressive disease.
Conclusion: The results from this model suggest that the use of the Oncotype DX test reduces the cost of health care in Germany making it the most cost effective test compared to the further tests.
Keywords: Breast cancer; Budget impact; Chemotherapy; Gene expression test; Oncotype DX; Overtreatment.
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