An Association of Influenza Epidemics in Children With Mobile App Data: Population-Based Observational Study in Osaka, Japan

Yusuke Katayama; Kosuke Kiyohara; Tomoya Hirose; Kenichiro Ishida; Jotaro Tachino; Shunichiro Nakao; Tomohiro Noda; Masahiro Ojima; Takeyuki Kiguchi; Tasuku Matsuyama; Tetsuhisa Kitamura

doi:10.2196/31131

An Association of Influenza Epidemics in Children With Mobile App Data: Population-Based Observational Study in Osaka, Japan

JMIR Form Res. 2022 Feb 10;6(2):e31131. doi: 10.2196/31131.

Affiliations

¹ Department of Traumatology and Acute Critical Medicine, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Japan.
² Department of Food Science, Faculty of Home Economics, Otsuma Women's University, Tokyo, Japan.
³ Department of Acute Medicine and Critical Care Center, Osaka National Hospital, National Hospital Organization, Osaka, Japan.
⁴ Department of Traumatology and Critical Care Medicine, Osaka City University Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka, Japan.
⁵ Division of Trauma and Surgical Critical Care, Osaka General Medical Center, Osaka, Japan.
⁶ Department of Emergency Medicine, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan.
⁷ Division of Environmental Medicine and Population Sciences, Department of Social and Environmental Medicine, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Japan.

PMID: 35142628
PMCID: PMC8874815
DOI: 10.2196/31131

Abstract

Background: Early surveillance to prevent the spread of influenza is a major public health concern. If there is an association of influenza epidemics with mobile app data, it may be possible to forecast influenza earlier and more easily.

Objective: We aimed to assess the relationship between seasonal influenza and the frequency of mobile app use among children in Osaka Prefecture, Japan.

Methods: This was a retrospective observational study that was performed over a three-year period from January 2017 to December 2019. Using a linear regression model, we calculated the R² value of the regression model to evaluate the relationship between the number of "fever" events selected in the mobile app and the number of influenza patients ≤14 years of age. We conducted three-fold cross-validation using data from two years as the training data set and the data of the remaining year as the test data set to evaluate the validity of the regression model. And we calculated Spearman correlation coefficients between the calculated number of influenza patients estimated using the regression model and the number of influenza patients, limited to the period from December to April when influenza is prevalent in Japan.

Results: We included 29,392 mobile app users. The R² value for the linear regression model was 0.944, and the adjusted R² value was 0.915. The mean Spearman correlation coefficient for the three regression models was 0.804. During the influenza season (December-April), the Spearman correlation coefficient between the number of influenza patients and the calculated number estimated using the linear regression model was 0.946 (P<.001).

Conclusions: In this study, the number of times that mobile apps were used was positively associated with the number of influenza patients. In particular, there was a good association of the number of influenza patients with the number of "fever" events selected in the mobile app during the influenza epidemic season.

Keywords: children; epidemic; influenza; mobile app; syndromic surveillance.

©Yusuke Katayama, Kosuke Kiyohara, Tomoya Hirose, Kenichiro Ishida, Jotaro Tachino, Shunichiro Nakao, Tomohiro Noda, Masahiro Ojima, Takeyuki Kiguchi, Tasuku Matsuyama, Tetsuhisa Kitamura. Originally published in JMIR Formative Research (https://formative.jmir.org), 10.02.2022.