Pollutant specific optimal deep learning and statistical model building for air quality forecasting

Abstract

Poor air quality is becoming a critical environmental concern in different countries over the last several years. Most of the air pollutants have serious consequences on human health and wellbeing. In this context, efficient forecasting of air pollutants is currently crucial to predict future events with a view to taking corrective actions and framing effective environmental policies. Although deep learning (DL) as well as statistical forecasting models are investigated in the literature, they have rarely used in air pollutant-specific optimal model building for long-term forecasting. In this paper, our aim is to develop the pollutant-specific optimal forecasting models for the phases spanning from preprocessing to model building by investigating a set of predictive techniques. In this regard, this paper presents a methodology for long-term forecasting of some important air pollutants. More specifically, a total of eight best performing models such as stacked LSTM, LSTM auto-encoder, Bi-LSTM, convLSTM, Holt-Winters, auto-regressive (AR), SARIMA, and Prophet are investigated for developing pollutant-specific optimal forecasting models. The study is carried out based on the real-world data obtained from government-run air quality monitoring units in Kolkata over a period of 4 years. The models such as Holt-Winters, Bi-LSTM, and ConvLSTM achieve high forecasting accuracy with respect to MAE and RMSE values for majority of the pollutants.

Keywords: Deep learning; Forecasting; Statistical methods; Time series analysis.