The basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa

PLoS One. 2022 Feb 25;17(2):e0264455. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264455. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

The pandemic of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) took the world by surprise. Following the first outbreak of COVID-19 in December 2019, several models have been developed to study and understand its transmission dynamics. Although the spread of COVID-19 is being slowed down by vaccination and other interventions, there is still a need to have a clear understanding of the evolution of the pandemic across countries, states and communities. To this end, there is a need to have a clearer picture of the initial spread of the disease in different regions. In this project, we used a simple SEIR model and a Bayesian inference framework to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa. Our estimates vary between 1.98 (Sudan) and 9.66 (Mauritius), with a median of 3.67 (90% CrI: 3.31-4.12). The estimates provided in this paper will help to inform COVID-19 modeling in the respective countries/regions.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Basic Reproduction Number*
  • Bayes Theorem
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Humans
  • Mauritius / epidemiology
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Pandemics
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Sudan / epidemiology

Grants and funding

Dr. Jude D. Kong (J.K.) received the following awards for this project: Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC): https://www.idrc.ca/en and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA): https://www.government.se/government-agencies/the-swedish-international-development-cooperation-agency-sida/ (Grant No. 109559-001).