Predicting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa: the case of Namibia

Justin T Okano; Eugenio Valdano; Honore K Mitonga; Sally Blower

doi:10.1093/jtm/taac034

Predicting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa: the case of Namibia

J Travel Med. 2022 May 31;29(3):taac034. doi: 10.1093/jtm/taac034.

Authors

Justin T Okano¹, Eugenio Valdano², Honore K Mitonga³, Sally Blower¹

Affiliations

¹ Center for Biomedical Modeling, Department of Psychiatry and Biobehavioral Sciences, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
² Sorbonne Université, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, F75012, Paris, France.
³ Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Namibia, Private Bag 13301, Windhoek, Namibia.

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 transmission models have been fairly inaccurate in their predictions for Africa. Here, based on an analysis of surveillance data from Namibia, we conclude that it is necessary to include spatial demography, and travel, in SARS-CoV-2 transmission models in order to make more accurate predictions for COVID-19 epidemics in Africa.

Predicting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa: the case of Namibia

Authors

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Abstract

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