International trade reduces global phosphorus demand but intensifies the imbalance in local consumption

Abstract

International trade has led to increasing levels of economic development; however, its role in altering the global phosphorus (P) demand and local P footprint (PF) is unclear. Here, through a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis, we quantified the PF associated with the global consumption of agricultural products for 159 countries and 169 crops over the period of 1995-2015. The results suggested that the international network of P flows was highly connected and the flow distribution was overridingly driven by developed economies (e.g., USA and Germany) and large emerging economies (e.g., China and India). A decoupling between the PF and economic growth was observed in most countries. The high PF per capita in developed economies was mainly driven by imports from developing countries rather than domestic P applications. Our results also highlighted that international trade had two impacts on global P management. Firstly, it reduced the total global P demand from agricultural production by 16%; secondly, it intensified the imbalance of local P consumption. Therefore, the future sustainable management of P requires consideration of the original suppliers and final consumers along the global supply chains and the associated consequences on P management from both local and global perspectives.

Keywords: Agricultural products; International trade; Multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis; Phosphorus footprint.