Sub-Saharan Africa's international migration constrains its sustainable development under climate change

Qirui Li; Cyrus Samimi

doi:10.1007/s11625-022-01116-z

Sub-Saharan Africa's international migration constrains its sustainable development under climate change

Sustain Sci. 2022;17(5):1873-1897. doi: 10.1007/s11625-022-01116-z. Epub 2022 Mar 18.

Authors

Qirui Li^{1

2}, Cyrus Samimi^{1

2

3}

Affiliations

¹ Africa Multiple Cluster of Excellence, University of Bayreuth, 95440 Bayreuth, Germany.
² Climatology Research Group, University of Bayreuth, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany.
³ Bayreuth, Centre of Ecology and Environmental Research, University of Bayreuth, 95448 Bayreuth, Germany.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is seen as a region of mass migration and population displacement caused by poverty, violent conflict, and environmental stress. However, empirical evidence is inconclusive regarding how SSA's international migration progressed and reacted during its march to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This article attempts to study the patterns and determinants of SSA's international migration and the cause and effects on sustainable development by developing a Sustainability Index and regression models. We find that international migration was primarily intra-SSA to low-income but high-population-density countries. Along with increased sustainability scores, international migration declined, but emigration rose. Climate extremes tend to affect migration and emigration but not universally. Dry extremes propelled migration, whereas wet extremes had an adverse effect. Hot extremes had an increasing effect but were insignificant. SSA's international migration was driven by food insecurity, low life expectancy, political instability and violence, high economic growth, unemployment, and urbanisation rates. The probability of emigration was mainly driven by high fertility. SSA's international migration promoted asylum seeking to Europe with the diversification of origin countries and a motive for economic wellbeing. 1% more migration flow or 1% higher probability of emigration led to a 0.2% increase in asylum seekers from SSA to Europe. Large-scale international migration and recurrent emigration constrained SSA's sustainable development in political stability, food security, and health, requiring adequate governance and institutions for better migration management and planning towards the SDGs.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-022-01116-z.

Keywords: Adaptation of social-ecological systems; Climate extremes; Feedback loop; Impact assessment; Migration and development; Sustainable Development Goals.