Objectives We selected assessment items that can be used to evaluate the physical, mental, and social functions of community-dwelling older people comprehensively and easily, and examined whether these items could predict a future transition to the requirement for nursing care and dementia.Methods We conducted a self-administered mail survey of 4,439 community-dwelling older people, who were not certified as requiring nursing care in 2011. The items for the survey were shortlisted out of a total of 54 items that were selected by referring to existing scales, and the evaluation items were determined by pass rate and factor analysis. The cut-off point of the total scores was estimated by ROC analysis using the certification of requiring long-term care (support level 1 or higher) and level of independence in the daily lives of older people with dementia (independence level I or higher) in 2014 as external criteria. The predictive validity was examined by binomial logistic regression analysis using the cut-off point of the total score and the score of the sub-domains as explanatory variables, and the requirement of nursing care and independence level of dementia in 2014 as objective variables.Results A factor analysis of 1,810 subjects with no deficiencies in the 54 items identified 24 items in five domains (mental health, walking function, Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL), cognitive function, and social support). During the ROC analysis, the cut-off point of the total score was estimated to be 20/21 points (nursing care: AUC 0.75, sensitivity 0.77, specificity, 0.56; dementia: AUC 0.75; sensitivity 0.79, specificity 0.55). The binomial logistic regression analysis showed that persons with a total score of less than 20 points in 2011 were significantly more likely to be certified as requiring nursing care (odds ratio 2.57, 95%CI 1.69-3.92, P<0.01) or show a decline in their independence level of dementia (odds ratio 3.12, 95%CI 1.83-5.32, P<0.01) in 2014. The scores of mental health, walking function, and IADL were significantly associated with certification of requiring nursing care, while walking function and cognitive function were significantly associated with dementia.Conclusion We believe that the selected items in this study can successfully predict a transition to needing nursing care and dementia in the future. In the sub-domains, the results suggested an association with physical and mental function, as has been previously reported, but little association with social function.
Keywords: community-dwelling older people; dementia; mail method; need for long-term care; predictive validity.