Revisiting Retake Policy: Analyzing the Success Rates of Examinees With Multiple Attempts on the United States Medical Licensing Examination

Abstract

Purpose: A testing program's decision making on retake policy considers a number of factors, including fairness to examinees, examination security, examination purpose, and classification accuracy. For high-stakes licensure and certification examinations charged with protection of the public, this includes balancing fairness issues inherent in the potential for false negatives with the public protection need to minimize false positives. Since 2012, the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) has maintained a policy of ≤ 6 attempts on any examination component. The purpose of this study was to empirically examine the appropriateness of existing USMLE retake policy.

Method: A sample of over 300,000 examinees who were administered each Step examination between 2008 and 2018 was examined to address how pass rates (per attempt and cumulatively) differed for examinees and examinee subgroups via graphic depictions of pass rates, the impact of restricting the number of attempts on examinees and examinee subgroups via logistic regression analyses, and the impact of restricting the number of attempts on classification error via classification error analyses.

Results: Repeaters displayed consistently lower pass rates on subsequent attempts. Regardless of Step, most passing examinees did so by their fourth attempt. Models predicting the log odds of examinees taking ≥ 5 attempts showed a significant effect of gender, race, and medical school status, although the associated sample sizes are small. Misclassification analyses showed that, as attempts increased, the percentage of false passers increased and percentage of false failers decreased.

Conclusions: These considerations led to the USMLE's decision to reduce its attempt limit from 6 to 4 on any Step or Step component effective July 2021. This change balances the competing interests of fairness and examination access to the examinee population, while simultaneously maintaining a minimum standard consistent with the mission of the USMLE program to protect the public.