Is COVID-19 vaccine inequality undermining the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic?

Abstract

Background: The devastating health and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a global response in the development of effective vaccines to fight the disease in an extraordinarily short time. Both the development and the production of these vaccines opened a path of hope, but the inequality in vaccine distribution raises great concerns about the possibility of effectively eradicating the virus.

Methods: It is particularly important to analyse the extent to which vaccines are equally distributed and investigate the possible effects of vaccine inequalities as well as its major drivers. For this purpose, this paper investigates the extent of equitable vaccine distribution using some well-known inequality measures and disentangles the main drivers of the share of vaccination. In addition, the paper analyses the relationship between the vaccination rate, the GDP growth, and the incidence of the coronavirus disease, with the aim of providing empirical evidence on existing relationships worldwide.

Results: Our findings show that the situation is more challenging in less developed countries, especially African countries, due to weak health systems and low rates of vaccination. Moreover, we find a positive relationship between the share of vaccinated individuals and GDP. Consequently, the poorest, least developed countries with a lower rate of vaccine uptake will experience lower GDP growth.

Conclusions: Vaccines and the vaccination process reveal the existing inequalities between countries and how they, in turn, impact the well-being of their citizens. People who live in less developed countries have a lower probability of being vaccinated, which translates into a greater probability of dying from COVID. Countries are seeing their economic future compromised by low vaccination levels, given the positive and significant relationship between the vaccination rate and GDP growth. In short, while some countries are trying to get back to some sort of normality, even with some pandemic protocols, the situation in less developed countries is more challenging due to weak health systems and low rates of vaccination. Consequently, the poorest, least developed countries with a lower rate of vaccine penetration will experience lower GDP growth, and the pandemic will have a greater effect on their economy due to low vaccination rates.