Background: The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is highly transmissible in vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. The dynamics governing its establishment and propensity towards fixation (reaching 100% frequency in the SARS-CoV-2 population) in communities remain unknown. In this work, we describe the dynamics of Omicron at three institutions of higher education (IHEs) in the greater Boston area.
Methods: We use diagnostic and variant-specifying molecular assays and epidemiological analytical approaches to describe the rapid dominance of Omicron following its introduction to three IHEs with asymptomatic surveillance programs.
Results: We show that the establishment of Omicron at IHEs precedes that of the state and region, and that the time to fixation is shorter at IHEs (9.5-12.5 days) than in the state (14.8 days) or region. We show that the trajectory of Omicron fixation among university employees resembles that of students, with a 2-3 day delay. Finally, we compare cycle threshold (Ct) values in Omicron vs. Delta variant cases on college campuses, and identify lower viral loads among college affiliates harboring Omicron infections.
Conclusions: We document the rapid takeover of the Omicron variant at IHEs, reaching near-fixation within the span of 9.5-12.5 days despite lower viral loads, on average, than the previously dominant Delta variant. These findings highlight the transmissibility of Omicron, its propensity to rapidly dominate small populations, and the ability of robust asymptomatic surveillance programs to offer early insights into the dynamics of pathogen arrival and spread.
Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; epidemiology; infectious disease surveillance.
© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.