Adding a reaction-restoration type transmission rate dynamic-law to the basic SEIR COVID-19 model

PLoS One. 2022 Jun 16;17(6):e0269843. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0269843. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

The classical SEIR model, being an autonomous system of differential equations, has important limitations when representing a pandemic situation. Particularly, the geometric unimodal shape of the epidemic curve is not what is generally observed. This work introduces the βSEIR model, which adds to the classical SEIR model a differential law to model the variation in the transmission rate. It considers two opposite thrives generally found in a population: first, reaction to disease presence that may be linked to mitigation strategies, which tends to decrease transmission, and second, the urge to return to normal conditions that pulls to restore the initial value of the transmission rate. Our results open a wide spectrum of dynamic variabilities in the curve of new infected, which are justified by reaction and restoration thrives that affect disease transmission over time. Some of these dynamics have been observed in the existing COVID-19 disease data. In particular and to further exemplify the potential of the model proposed in this article, we show its capability of capturing the evolution of the number of new confirmed cases of Chile and Italy for several months after epidemic onset, while incorporating a reaction to disease presence with decreasing adherence to mitigation strategies, as well as a seasonal effect on the restoration of the initial transmissibility conditions.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • Chile / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Italy / epidemiology
  • Pandemics
  • SARS-CoV-2

Grants and funding

The author KVG was partially funded to develop this research by Proyecto Ingeniería 2030, grant number 14ENI2-26865 from the Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias at Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, a project financed by the Chilean economic development agency CORFO (Corporación de Fomento de la Producción, https://www.corfo.cl/sites/cpp/movil/webingles). The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. There was no additional external funding received for this study.