Variety of evidence in multimessenger astronomy

Abstract

The confirmation of models in multimessenger astronomy requires variety of evidence. Variety of evidence (VoE) should be understood as an eliminative epistemic principle: where multiple and heterogenous types of evidence converge upon model assumptions or predictions, confidence in the representational accuracy of that model and/or its assumptions is made stronger than if sources of evidence were homogenous. Varied evidence increases confidence indirectly by providing grounds upon which to eliminate under-supported alternatives. I discuss the role VoE reasoning plays in multimessenger astronomy, emphasizing the oft-neglected constraint of chronological evidential support to capture the importance of time series and timescales in astronomy. I then show that in a key case, the convergence of varied types of empirical observations lends confirmatory support to the kilonova model of neutron star mergers.¹.

Keywords: Confirmation; Multimessenger astronomy; Variety of evidence.