Discrepancy between biomarkers of lung injury and 1-year mortality in COVID-19

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 global pandemic started in late 2019 with the first wave. In this cross-sectional and observational study, we evaluated the associations between the biomarkers, COVID-19 pneumonia severity and 1-year mortality.

Methods: A sample of 276 polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive patients for SARS-CoV-2 was included. Computerized tomography severity score (CT-SS) was used to assess the severity of COVID-19 pneumonia in 222 cases. Multivariate analyses were performed to find the predictors of CT-SS, severe CT-SS (≥20) and 1-year mortality. Biomarkers of ferritin, high-sensitive C-reactive protein (CRP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), cardiac troponin (cTn), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), uric acid (UA) and d-dimer were routinely measured.

Results: Severe CT-SS (>20) was observed in 86 (31.2%) cases. Mortality was observed in 75 (27.2%) patients at 1 year. LDH displayed the highest predictive accuracy for severe CT-SS (AUC 0.741, sensitivity = 81% and specificity = 68%, cut-off value: 360 mg/dl). Linear regression analysis displayed that LDH predicted CT-SS [B = 11 (95% CI for B = 5-17, p < .001)]. Age was the most significant parameter that was associated with severe CT-SS (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.92-0.99, p = .015). d-dimer was the only biomarker that predicted with 1-year mortality (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.08-2.42, p = .020).

Conclusion: LDH is a sensitive and specific biomarker to determine patients with severe lung injury in COVID-19. d-dimer is the only biomarker that predicts 1-year mortality. Neither LDH nor CT-SS is associated with 1-year mortality.

Keywords: COVID-19; CT severity score; biomarkers; first wave; mortality.