An Epidemic Model with Time-Distributed Recovery and Death Rates

Samiran Ghosh; Vitaly Volpert; Malay Banerjee

doi:10.1007/s11538-022-01028-0

An Epidemic Model with Time-Distributed Recovery and Death Rates

Bull Math Biol. 2022 Jun 28;84(8):78. doi: 10.1007/s11538-022-01028-0.

Authors

Samiran Ghosh¹, Vitaly Volpert^{2

3}, Malay Banerjee⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur, 208016, Uttar Pradesh, India.
² Institut Camille Jordan, UMR 5208 CNRS, University Lyon 1, 69622, Villeurbanne, France.
³ Peoples Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), 6 Miklukho-Maklaya St, Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation.
⁴ Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur, 208016, Uttar Pradesh, India. malayb@iitk.ac.in.

Abstract

A compartmental epidemiological model with distributed recovery and death rates is proposed. In some particular cases, the model can be reduced to the conventional SIR model. However, in general, the dynamics of epidemic progression in this model is different. Distributed recovery and death rates are evaluated from COVID-19 data. The model is validated by the epidemiological data for different countries, and it shows better agreement with the data than the SIR model. The time-dependent disease transmission rate is estimated.

Keywords: Effective infection rate; Epidemic model; SIR model; Variable recovery rate.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

COVID-19* / epidemiology
Epidemics*
Humans
Mathematical Concepts
Models, Biological