Objectives: to quantify the variability of COVID-19 mortality from the beginning of the pandemic to mid-July 2021, in relation to the immigrant status and by Region and period.
Design: observational incidence study.
Setting and participants: the study population consists of the residents at the beginning of 2020 in seven Regions (Piedmont, Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Lazio, Sicily) aged <=74 years.
Main outcome measures: absolute frequency of deaths occurred in subjects who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, crude and standardized rates (standard: Italian population at the beginning of 2020), and mortality rates ratios (obtained using Poisson models), by immigrant status and stratified by gender, Region of residence, and period. The study period was divided into 5 subperiods: 22.02.2020-25.05.2020, 26.05.2020-02.10.2020, 03.10.2020-26.02.2021, 27.02.2021-16.07.2021.
Results: the study includes more than one half of the Italian population and most of the immigrants residing in the country, who are younger than Italians and experienced fewer COVID-19 deaths. Deaths among those who tested positive varied greatly between Regions and periods; standardized rates showed considerable increases over time among immigrants. In terms of rate ratios, there were excesses among immigrant males in the third period (MRR: 1.46; 95%CI 1.30-1.65) and in the fourth period (MRR: 1.55; 95%CI 1, 34-1.81). Among immigrant females, there is an indication of lower risk in the third period (MRR: 0.79; 95%CI 0.65-0.97) and of greater risk in the fourth period (MRR: 1. 46; 95%CI 1.21-1.77). Finally, the effect is modified by the Region of residence, both in the third and in the fourth period for males and only in the fourth period for females.
Conclusions: the risk of premature mortality due to COVID-19 is linked to immigrant status and with an intensity that varies by gender, Region, and period. More accessible tools for prevention, diagnosis and early healthcare can support immigrant communities in managing the risk factors linked to the spread of infections and, in particular, counteract their evolution into more severe disease outcomes.
Keywords: COVID-19; Citizenship; Immigrants; Italy; Mortality.