Insight into spatial-temporal patterns of hydroclimate change on the Chinese Loess Plateau over the past 250 years, using new evidence from tree rings

Abstract

The climate aridity since the mid-20th century has raised concerns about water resources on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). A lack of extended observation-like precipitation records for the eastern CLP (ECLP) means that it remains unclear whether or not the current arid state of the CLP is unprecedented, and the spatial-temporal characteristics of hydroclimatic variability across the CLP over past centuries are not well understood. Here we present a regional hydrological-year precipitation reconstruction for the Heichashan Mountains, which successfully captures hydroclimate changes on the ECLP since 1773 CE. The reconstruction explains 48.72 % of the observed variance for 1957-2019 CE and reveals a wetting trend since the early 2000s and shows 2014-2020 CE to have been the second wettest period over the past 248 years. 1910-1932 CE was the longest and driest period over the past centuries. Furthermore, the 19th century was relatively wet, whereas the 20th century was dry. We demonstrate that droughts tend to occur in warm periods. Combining our new reconstruction with previously published hydroclimatic reconstructions, we find that hydroclimate has changed synchronously on the ECLP and the western CLP (WCLP) for most of the past two centuries. Some regional differences do exist, for example in the 1890s-1920s, when aridity gradually intensified across the ECLP, no similar drying is evident in records for the WCLP, although the 1920s megadrought occurred in both the ECLP and WCLP. Another difference is in the onset of the 20th-century aridity, which began in the 1950s on the ECLP, around 20 years later than it began on the WCLP. In addition to the known influences of the Asian Summer Monsoon and related large-scale circulations, this work highlights a major finding that the 1920s megadrought may be related to a regime shift in Northern Hemisphere temperature.

Keywords: Asian summer monsoon; Chinese Loess Plateau; Hydroclimate change; Northern Hemisphere temperature; Spatial-temporal variations; Tree ring.