Regional connectivity drove bidirectional transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East during travel restrictions

Edyth Parker; Catelyn Anderson; Mark Zeller; Ahmad Tibi; Jennifer L Havens; Geneviève Laroche; Mehdi Benlarbi; Ardeshir Ariana; Refugio Robles-Sikisaka; Alaa Abdel Latif; Alexander Watts; Abdalla Awidi; Saied A Jaradat; Karthik Gangavarapu; Karthik Ramesh; Ezra Kurzban; Nathaniel L Matteson; Alvin X Han; Laura D Hughes; Michelle McGraw; Emily Spencer; Laura Nicholson; Kamran Khan; Marc A Suchard; Joel O Wertheim; Shirlee Wohl; Marceline Côté; Amid Abdelnour; Kristian G Andersen; Issa Abu-Dayyeh

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32536-1

Regional connectivity drove bidirectional transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East during travel restrictions

Nat Commun. 2022 Aug 15;13(1):4784. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-32536-1.

Authors

Edyth Parker^#¹, Catelyn Anderson^#², Mark Zeller^#², Ahmad Tibi³, Jennifer L Havens⁴, Geneviève Laroche⁵, Mehdi Benlarbi⁵, Ardeshir Ariana⁵, Refugio Robles-Sikisaka², Alaa Abdel Latif², Alexander Watts⁶, Abdalla Awidi^{7

8}, Saied A Jaradat⁹, Karthik Gangavarapu¹⁰, Karthik Ramesh², Ezra Kurzban², Nathaniel L Matteson², Alvin X Han¹¹, Laura D Hughes¹², Michelle McGraw², Emily Spencer¹³, Laura Nicholson¹³, Kamran Khan⁶, Marc A Suchard^{10

14}, Joel O Wertheim¹⁵, Shirlee Wohl², Marceline Côté⁵, Amid Abdelnour³, Kristian G Andersen², Issa Abu-Dayyeh^{16

17}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, USA. eparker@scripps.edu.
² Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, USA.
³ Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories, Amman, Jordan.
⁴ Bioinformatics and Systems Biology Graduate Program, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
⁵ Department of Biochemistry, Microbiology and Immunology, and Center for Infection, Immunity, and Inflammation, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
⁶ Bluedot, Toronto, ON, Canada.
⁷ Cell Therapy Center, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan.
⁸ Thrombosis, haemostasis laboratory, School of Medicine, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan.
⁹ Princess Haya Biotechnology Center, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan.
¹⁰ Department of Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
¹¹ Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Institute for Infection and Immunity, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
¹² Department of Integrative, Structural and Computational Biology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, 92037, USA.
¹³ Scripps Research Translational Institute, La Jolla, CA, USA.
¹⁴ Department of Biostatistics, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
¹⁵ Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
¹⁶ Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories, Amman, Jordan. i.abudayyeh@biolab.jo.
¹⁷ Cell Therapy Center, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan. i.abudayyeh@biolab.jo.

^# Contributed equally.

Abstract

Regional connectivity and land travel have been identified as important drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, the generalizability of this finding is understudied outside of well-sampled, highly connected regions. In this study, we investigated the relative contributions of regional and intercontinental connectivity to the source-sink dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 for Jordan and the Middle East. By integrating genomic, epidemiological and travel data we show that the source of introductions into Jordan was dynamic across 2020, shifting from intercontinental seeding in the early pandemic to more regional seeding for the travel restrictions period. We show that land travel, particularly freight transport, drove introduction risk during the travel restrictions period. High regional connectivity and land travel also drove Jordan's export risk. Our findings emphasize regional connectedness and land travel as drivers of transmission in the Middle East.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

COVID-19* / epidemiology
Humans
Middle East / epidemiology
Pandemics / prevention & control
SARS-CoV-2*
Travel

Abstract

Publication types

MeSH terms

Grants and funding