Skip to main page content
Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
, 99 (1), 65-84

The Epidemiology of Mumps in the UK: A Preliminary Study of Virus Transmission, Herd Immunity and the Potential Impact of Immunization

The Epidemiology of Mumps in the UK: A Preliminary Study of Virus Transmission, Herd Immunity and the Potential Impact of Immunization

R M Anderson et al. Epidemiol Infect.


Mathematical models and statistical analyses of epidemiological data are employed to assess the potential impact of mass vaccination on the incidences of cases of mumps infection and cases of mumps related complications. The analyses reveal that in the United Kingdom the average age at infection with the mumps virus is currently between 6-7 years and that the inter-epidemic period of the infection is approximately 3 years. The critical level of vaccine uptake to eliminate mumps virus transmission is predicted to be approximately 85% of each cohort of boys and girls by the age of 2 years. Analyses of published data show that the risk of complication arising from mumps infection is markedly age- and sex-related. Model predictions suggest that the incidence of orchitis will be increased, over the level pertaining prior to mass vaccination, by levels of vaccine uptake (by 2 years of age) that are less than 70% of each yearly cohort of boys and girls. Moderate (over 60%) to high (75%) levels of vaccine uptake, however, are predicted to reduce the overall incidence of cases of mumps related complications (especially those with CNS involvement).

Similar articles

  • Mumps in the Vaccination Age: Global Epidemiology and the Situation in Germany
    AI Beleni et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health 15 (8). PMID 30065192. - Review
    Vaccination against mumps virus (MuV) (mostly measles-mumps-rubella) is routinely performed in more than 120 countries and has resulted in a distinct decrease of mumps in …
  • [Mumps Outbreak in the Plzeň Region in 2011]
    P Pazdiora et al. Epidemiol Mikrobiol Imunol 64 (4), 242-9. PMID 26795229.
    Mumps outbreak may has been a result of the accumulation of high numbers of susceptible individuals in the population. The most affected area was the Klatovy district whe …
  • Measles, Mumps and Rubella: Control by Vaccination
    JA van Druten et al. Dev Biol Stand 65, 53-63. PMID 3556777.
    In 1984, the Health Council of the Netherlands advised that a new vaccination strategy against measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) should be initiated. The use of a combined …
  • Effectiveness of a Vaccination Program Against Mumps in Ukraine
    Y Hrynash et al. Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis 27 (12), 1171-6. PMID 18618156.
    Medical records and incidence data were analyzed retrospectively to document the epidemiology, clinical features, and outcomes of mumps in relation to vaccination status …
  • [Mumps Makes a Comeback]
    W Opstelten et al. Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd 156 (43), A5187. PMID 23095482. - Review
    After vaccination of Dutch children against mumps started in 1987 through the National Immunisation Programme the incidence of mumps decreased greatly. However, outbreaks …
See all similar articles

Cited by 17 PubMed Central articles

See all "Cited by" articles


    1. J Hyg (Lond). 1983 Apr;90(2):259-325 - PubMed
    1. Nature. 1985 Nov 28-Dec 4;318(6044):323-9 - PubMed
    1. J Hyg (Lond). 1986 Apr;96(2):291-304 - PubMed
    1. J Hyg (Lond). 1986 Apr;96(2):305-33 - PubMed
    1. Br Med J (Clin Res Ed). 1986 Jun 7;292(6534):1501-2 - PubMed

Publication types