Analysis of prognostic factors of undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcoma and construction and validation of a prediction nomogram based on SEER database

Abstract

Background: Undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcoma (UPS) is considered one of the most common types of soft tissue sarcoma (STS). Current studies have shown that the prognosis of UPS is related to some of its clinical characteristics, but no survival prediction model for the overall survival (OS) of UPS patients has been reported. The purpose of this study is to construct and validate a nomogram for predicting OS in UPS patients at 3, 5 years after the diagnosis.

Methods: According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 1079 patients with UPS were screened from the SEER database and randomly divided into the training cohort (n = 755) and the validation cohort (n = 324). Patient demographic and clinicopathological characteristics were first described, and the correlation between the two groups was compared, using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analysis to determine independent prognostic factors. Based on the identified independent prognostic factors, a nomogram for OS in UPS patients was established using R language. The nomogram's performance was then validated using multiple indicators, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Both the C-index of the OS nomogram in the training cohort and the validation cohort were greater than 0 .75, and both the values of AUC were greater than 0.78. These four values were higher than their corresponding values in the TNM staging system, respectively. The calibration curves of the Nomogram prediction model and the TNM staging system were well fitted with the 45° line. Decision curve analysis showed that both the nomogram model and the TNM staging system had clinical net benefits over a wide range of threshold probabilities, and the nomogram had higher clinical net benefits than the TNM staging system as a whole.

Conclusion: With good discrimination, accuracy, and clinical practicability, the nomogram can individualize the prediction of 3-year and 5-year OS in patients with UPS, which can provide a reference for clinicians and patients to make better clinical decisions.

Keywords: Nomogram; SEER database; Survival; Undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcoma.