Background: Thyroid cancer (TC) is one of the most common cancers in China. The aim of this study was to identify the potential age, period, and cohort effect under the long-term trends in TC incidence and mortality, making projections up to 2030.
Methods: Incidence and mortality data on TC were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The population predictions were obtained from the United Nations World Population Prospects 2019. An age-period-cohort model was used for the analysis.
Results: From 1990 to 2019, the net drift (the overall annual percentage change of TC over time adjusted for age groups) of the TC incidence was 5.01% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.72%, 5.29%) for men and 1.48% (95% CI: 1.14%, 1.82%) for women. The net drift of TC mortality was 1.64% (95% CI: 1.38%, 1.91%) for men and -2.51% (95% CI: -2.77%, -2.26%) for women. Regarding the incidence of TC, both the period and the cohort relative risks (RRs) in men and women showed an overall increasing trend. As to the mortality rate of TC, both the period and cohort RRs in women showed a monotonic declining trend. The period RRs for men decreased after 2015, but the cohort RRs revealed a fluctuating upward pattern. From 2019 to 2030, the TC incidence was projected to rise by 32.4% in men and 13.1% in women, the mortality declining by 13.0% in men and 17.3% in women. The elderly was projected to have an increasing proportion of TC occurrence and deaths.
Conclusions: Over the past 30 years, the incidence rate of TC in China has continually increased, and this trend was projected to continue. Although male mortality has increased in the past, it is expected to decline in the future. The proportion of older people among TC occurrence and death was projected to gradually increase, and the difficulties elderly with TC lrequire more attention.
Keywords: age-period-cohort effect; incidence; mortality; projection; thyroid cancer.
Copyright © 2022 Wu, Zhao, Sun, Cheng, Yin and Bai.