Climate seasonality and lower respiratory tract diseases: a predictive model for pediatric hospitalizations

Rev Bras Enferm. 2022 Sep 19;75(2):e20210680. doi: 10.1590/0034-7167-2021-0680. eCollection 2022.
[Article in English, Portuguese]


Objectives: to analyze the climate seasonality of respiratory diseases in children aged 0-9 years and present a model to predict hospital admissions for 2021 to 2022.

Methods: verify, in a temporal manner, the correlation of admissions for pneumonia, bronchitis/bronchiolitis, and asthma with meteorological variables, aiming to demonstrate seasonality with the adjustment of temporal series models.

Results: there was a seasonal effect in the number of registered cases for all diseases, with the highest incidence of registrations in the months of autumn and winter.

Conclusions: it was possible to observe a tendency towards a decrease in the registration of pneumonia cases; In cases of admissions due to bronchitis and bronchiolitis, there was a slight tendency towards an increase; and, in occurrence rates of asthma, there was no variation in the number of cases.

MeSH terms

  • Asthma* / complications
  • Asthma* / epidemiology
  • Bronchiolitis* / epidemiology
  • Bronchiolitis* / etiology
  • Bronchitis* / complications
  • Bronchitis* / epidemiology
  • Child
  • Hospitalization
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Pneumonia*
  • Respiration Disorders*