Winter loss rates of honey bee colonies may fluctuate highly between years in temperate climates. The present study combined survey data of autumn and winter loss rates in Germany (2012-2021) with estimates of honey flow-assessed with automated hive scales as the start of honey flow in spring and its magnitude in summer-with the aim of understanding annual fluctuations in loss rates. Autumn colony loss rates were positively and significantly correlated with winter loss rates, whereas winter loss rates were inversely related to loss rates in autumn of the following year. An early start of net honey flow in spring predicted high loss rates in both autumn and winter, whereas high cumulative honey flow led to lower loss rates. The start of net honey flow was related to temperature sums in March. Combined, the results implied that the winter loss rate in one year was influenced by the loss rate of the preceding winter and shaped by honey flow dynamics during the following year. Hence, the rate of colony loss in winter can be viewed as a cumulative death process affected by the preceding one and a half years.
Keywords: TrachtNet; Varroa destructor; automated hive scales; autumn colony loss; foraging activity; growing degree days; honey flow period; surveys; winter colony loss.