Evaluation and validation of a prediction model for extubation success in very preterm infants

Abstract

Objective: To perform an external validation of a publicly available model predicting extubation success in very preterm infants.

Study design: Retrospective study of infants born <1250 g at a single center. Model performance evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and comparing observed and expected probabilities of extubation success, defined as survival ≥5 d without an endotracheal tube.

Results: Of 177 infants, 120 (68%) were extubated successfully. The median (IQR) gestational age was 27 weeks (25-28) and weight at extubation was 915 g (755-1050). The model had acceptable discrimination (AUROC 0.72 [95% CI 0.65-0.80]) and adequate calibration (calibration slope 0.96, intercept -0.06, mean observed-to-expected difference in probability of extubation success -0.08 [95% CI -0.01, -0.15]).

Conclusions: The extubation success prediction model has acceptable performance in an external cohort. Additional prospective studies are needed to determine if the model can be improved or how it can be used for clinical benefit.