Investigating the effects of absolute humidity and movement on COVID-19 seasonality in the United States

Gary Lin; Alisa Hamilton; Oliver Gatalo; Fardad Haghpanah; Takeru Igusa; Eili Klein

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-19898-8

Investigating the effects of absolute humidity and movement on COVID-19 seasonality in the United States

Sci Rep. 2022 Oct 6;12(1):16729. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-19898-8.

Authors

Gary Lin¹, Alisa Hamilton², Oliver Gatalo², Fardad Haghpanah², Takeru Igusa^{3

4

5}, Eili Klein^{2

6

7}

Affiliations

¹ Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy, 962 Wayne Avenue, Suite 530, Silver Spring, MD, 20910-4433, USA. lin@CDDEP.org.
² Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy, 962 Wayne Avenue, Suite 530, Silver Spring, MD, 20910-4433, USA.
³ Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
⁴ Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
⁵ Center for Systems Science and Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
⁶ Department of Emergency Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
⁷ Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.

Abstract

Mounting evidence suggests the primary mode of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is aerosolized transmission from close contact with infected individuals. While transmission is a direct result of human encounters, falling humidity may enhance aerosolized transmission risks similar to other respiratory viruses (e.g., influenza). Using Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, we assessed the relative effects of absolute humidity and changes in individual movement patterns on daily cases while accounting for regional differences in climatological regimes. Our results indicate that increasing humidity was associated with declining cases in the spring and summer of 2020, while decreasing humidity and increase in residential mobility during winter months likely caused increases in COVID-19 cases. The effects of humidity were generally greater in regions with lower humidity levels. Given the possibility that COVID-19 will be endemic, understanding the behavioral and environmental drivers of COVID-19 seasonality in the United States will be paramount as policymakers, healthcare systems, and researchers forecast and plan accordingly.

Publication types

Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

COVID-19* / epidemiology
Humans
Humidity
SARS-CoV-2
Seasons
Temperature
United States / epidemiology

Abstract

Publication types

MeSH terms

Grants and funding