CT radiomics nomogram for prediction of the Ki-67 index in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Abstract

Objectives: To construct and validate a contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT)-based radiomics nomogram to predict Ki-67 expression level in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC).

Methods: A total of 217 patients with HNSCC who underwent CECT scans and immunohistochemical examination of their Ki-67 index were enrolled in this study. The patients were divided into a training set (n = 140; Ki-67: ≥ 50% [n = 72] and < 50% [n = 68]) and an external test set (n = 77; Ki-67: ≥ 50% [n = 38] and < 50% [n = 39]). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method was used to select key features for a CECT-image-based radiomics signature and a radiomics score (Rad-score) was calculated. A clinical model was established using clinical data and CT findings. The independent clinical factors and Rad-score were then combined to construct a radiomics nomogram. The performance characteristics of the Rad-score, clinical model, and nomogram were assessed using ROCs and decision curve analysis.

Results: Twenty features were finally selected to construct the Rad-score. The radiomics nomogram incorporating the Rad-score, low histological grade, and lymphatic spread showed higher predictive value for the Ki-67 index (≥ 50% vs. < 50%) than the clinical model on both the training (AUC, 0.919 vs. 0.648, p < 0.001) and test (AUC, 0.832 vs. 0.685, p = 0.030) sets. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the radiomics nomogram was more clinically useful than the clinical model.

Conclusions: A CECT-based radiomics nomogram was constructed to predict the expression of Ki-67 in HNSCC. This model showed favorable predictive efficacy and might be useful for prognostic evaluation and clinical decision-making in patients with HNSCC.

Key points: • Accurate pre-treatment prediction of Ki-67 index in HNSCC is crucial. • A CECT-based radiomics nomogram showed favorable predictive efficacy in estimation of Ki-67 expression status in HNSCC patients.

Keywords: Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma; Radiomics; Tomography, X-ray computed.