Influence of dose and duration of smoking on lung cancer rates

IARC Sci Publ. 1986;(74):23-33.


Lung cancer risks depend far more strongly on the duration than on the daily dose-rate of cigarette smoking. For example, a three-fold increase in the daily dose-rate may produce only about a three-fold increase in effect, while a three-fold increase in duration might produce about a 100-fold increase in effect. Hence, a few decades after cigarette smoking becomes widespread, national lung cancer rates may remain very misleadingly low, even though they will eventually become extremely high.

MeSH terms

  • Age Factors
  • Dose-Response Relationship, Drug
  • Humans
  • Lung Neoplasms / epidemiology
  • Lung Neoplasms / etiology*
  • Lung Neoplasms / mortality
  • Risk
  • Smoking*
  • Time Factors