Predictor assessment of complete miscarriage after medical treatment for early pregnancy loss in women with previous cesarean section

Abstract

This study aimed to evaluate clinical predictors associated with complete miscarriage after medical treatment for early pregnancy loss (EPL) in women with previous cesarean section. Patients with retained uterine content after expulsion followed by administration of mifepristone and misoprostol were included if they chose continued medical treatment rather than surgical intervention. Clinical characteristics including maternal age, gravidity, parity, history of previous cesarean section and ultrasound findings regarding average diameter of the gestational sac, uterine position, width, and blood flow signal of the residual uterine content after expulsion of the gestational sac were included in the analysis to determine predictors of complete miscarriage. A recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was used to divide the patients into probability groups and assess their probability of complete miscarriage. A total of 89 patients were analyzed. The complete miscarriage rate was 58.43% overall. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that the width and blood flow signal of the residual after expulsion were both independent predictors for complete miscarriage (all P < .05). Patients were divided into high-probability (no blood flow signal, width of residual <1 cm), intermediate-probability (no blood flow signal, width of residual ≥1 cm; blood flow signal, width of residual <1 cm), and low-probability (blood flow signal, width of residual ≥ 1 cm) groups by RPA according to these 2 factors. The incidences of complete miscarriage were 88.24%, 67.57%, and 34.29%, respectively, P < .001). Surgical evacuation may be avoided in patients without ultrasonic blood flow of the uterine residual and width of the residual <1 cm. More active treatment could be recommended for patients with ultrasonic blood flow of the uterine residual and width of the residual ≥ 1 cm. Clinicians and patients should be aware of these differences when proceeding with medical treatment for EPL patients with previous cesarean section.